The world’s most famous cohort study, which won its two original authors a knighthood, was undertaken by Sir Austin Bradford Hill, Sir Richard Doll, and, latterly, Richard Peto. They followed up 40 000 British doctors divided into four cohorts (non-smokers, and light, moderate, and heavy smokers) using both all cause mortality (any death) and cause specific mortality (death from a particular disease) as outcome measures. Publication of their 10 year interim results in 1964, which showed a substantial excess in both lung cancer mortality and all cause mortality in smokers, with a “dose-response” relation (the more you smoke, the worse your chances of getting lung cancer), went a long way to showing that the link between smoking and ill health was causal rather than coincidental.31 The 20 year and 40 year results of this momentous study (which achieved an impressive 94% follow up of those recruited in 1951 and not known to have died) illustrate both the perils of smoking and the strength of evidence that can be obtained from a properly conducted cohort study.32 33
bmj smoking
Taken from BMJ – how to read a paper.
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